2011-12 Blazers Preview
Much like the 2011-12 NBA season, my Blazers preview is a little late. How appropriate. Although Portland is two games in to the lockout shortened season, plenty of time remains for predictions and critiques, so let's begin.
Brandon Roy's sudden retirement was a terrible shock to NBA fans and especially Blazer nation. The prodigal son was gone just like that, before he hit his prime, with knees or without. Blazer fans lost a part of their family that day when B-Roy decided to hang 'em up, as did the team lose a leader and star player. My hope is that eventually Roy's knees will heal enough for him to attempt a comeback, but that's very wishful thinking. Even if Roy does comeback in a year or two, it may end up being more of a nostalgia trip for Rip City, as nobody can expect Brandon to play at the level he did before suffering numerous knee injuries. He will always be remembered for his ability to take over games and give the league's best defenders quite a difficult task. Not to mention his 32 foot buzzer beater against Houston in '08 and what will be remembered as his best performance of his career in Game 5 against Dallas in the 2011 first round, when he scored 18 points in the fourth quarter to keep the Blazers alive for one more game. Whatever Brandon Roy decides to do, whether it be to attempt a comeback, return to the sidelines as a coach, or simply watch from afar with his family, all Blazer fans wish him the best and will always miss and remember him. (This is not an obituary, although it might as well be.)
Another blow to the Blazers' offseason was a disappointing yet not surprising negative result in the Greg Oden injury saga. Oden is once again doubtful for the season with an ailing knee injury that has combined with a foot injury to hold him out of three quarters of games in his career. This forced the Blazers to sign the oldest player in the league in 39 year old journeyman center Kurt Thomas. While Thomas is highly experienced and will bring much veteran leadership, the last thing the Blazers need is another old post. Marcus Camby, 37, is in the twilight of his career, and Thomas isn't any closer to his glory years. Hopefully the duo can pass off some of their wisdom to young wildcard Chris Johnson, who has a ton of athleticism and potential. The three amigos actually won't make a bad frontcourt trio, as Camby and Thomas can carry a majority of the minutes while Johnson can step in when they need to hit the oxygen tanks. Alright enough ragging on the vets. I think they're both quality players and will contribute to Portland's success.
Back to Oden. He has struck fear in my heart of turning into another Sam Bowie. Bowie was selected second overall by Portland in 1984, one pick ahead of Michael Jordan. Bowie was the right pick at the time but ended up being oft injured and a bust, while MJ went on to be the best player in the history of basketball. Basketball gods really do hate the Blazers. Oden was undoubtedly deserving of being selected number one in 2007. A seven foot center who could grab fifteen rebounds a game and be as dominant as Dwight Howard. Any team would be stupid to pick Kevin Durant over him. Meanwhile, Oden has played in just 82 games over 4 seasons while Durant won the scoring title last season, and is in preseason MVP considerations with the likes of LeBron and Chris Paul. Even a more painful reality is that the Thunder (formerly the Supersonics and Portland's arch rival) are one of the top teams in the Western Conference whom many have picked to win the conference and/or NBA title this season. Fifteen years down the road, will the Blazers be the subject of, “Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame the Blazers for Picking Oden Over Durant?” Oden seems like a really nice guy, and his ongoing injuries have to be killing him more than anyone else, both literally and figuratively. He wants to get out there and be the 18 and 15 per night guy he has the potential to be, but his enormous body simply won't let him. Rip City fans and NBA fans alike hope he can get healthy once and for all, and be a relevant name in the league. So Greg, on behalf of myself and all Blazer fans, break a leg?
A much needed bright spot for the Blazers this offseason was the signing of veteran shooting guard and former sixth man of the year Jamal Crawford. The deal is for just two seasons with a player option for the second year, and many believe Crawford will bail after one season and seek a long-term contract. I believe Crawford will fit in very nicely to Portland's newly adopted fast paced offense, and hopefully he learns to love the Pacific Northwest and the incredible environment the Rose Garden provides each and every night. It will take a few more games for Jamal to get comfortable in Portland and their offense, but once he does he will be an excellent contributor and will provide a ton of energy off the bench.
The Blazers' backcourt lost veteran point guard Andre Miller this offseason via trade with Denver in exchange for seventh year court general Raymond Felton. Felton brings some much needed youth to the starting lineup, and while Miller's career averages are slightly better, Felton is just hitting his prime and is a much better outside shooter. Once he gets the Blazers' offense down pat and develops the Andre to LaMarcus lob pass, Felton will prove to be very valuable and will only get better for Portland.
Key Players
Along with newcomers Crawford and Felton, Portland has a lot of underrated talent that has yet to be recognized by much of the league.
LaMarcus Aldridge
This will be the year for Aldridge to step out of Brandon Roy's shadow and take over as a superstar player for the Blazers. Although he had a breakout season last year and developed into such player, Roy is completely gone this season, so “LA” can step into the spotlight even more. Aldridge averaged a career high in points and rebounds last season (21.8 and 8.7, respectively) and at age 26, those numbers will only get better. He solidified himself as a premier power forward in the NBA, and is now Portland's superstar to replace B-Roy.
Gerald Wallace
“Crash” came over to the Blazers at the trade deadline last year and it has taken little time for him to impress Rip City. In 23 games last season and the first two of this year, Wallace has displayed a nonstop motor and extraordinary hustle in 35.1 minutes per game. Wallace is a guy who will get you 15 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, a block and a couple steals every game, without ever showing a single emotion. He and Felton played 5 seasons together and built a chemistry in Charlotte, so look for them to build on that this year and be a huge part or Portland's success.
Wesley Matthews
It's just Matthews' third year in the league, but he has already proven himself as an excellent scorer. He has yet to miss a game, and averaged a career high 15.9 pointer per game last season while shooting 40.7% from behind the 3 point line and 84.4% from the charity stripe. It's been a rough first two games for Wes this season, but he needs to and will keep shooting, and eventually his shots will fall.
Playoff Chances
The Blazers are easily one of the top eight teams in the Western Conference and should have no trouble making the playoffs. Their downfall in previous years has been injuries, and with Oden already out in addition to having the two oldest centers in the NBA, it is easy to expect more of the same. The lockout shortened season provides less time for players to get hurt, but if there are any injuries, potential losses will hurt the Blazers even more, as every game is so important this season. Basketball gods have hated the Trailblazers recently, but this year could finally be the one in which Portland breaks through the first round of the playoffs. The team still has a lot of youth other than Thomas and Camby, and everyone in the starting lineup except Camby is either in their prime or has yet to hit it. There are many bright spots for the Blazers this season and for years to come.
Max Waterman
Due to the NBA lockout there has been a frenetic offseason with free agency lasting a little over two weeks and team practices a little over one week. While the Portland Trail Blazers were minor players in free agency and the trading market they experienced a dramatic changing of their roster to their familiar nemesis; injuries. With a week remaining until the Blazers season tips off lets take a glance at the Blazers offseason moves, the roster as is, and ultimately a prediction for how they will fare in the 2011-2012 season.
Offseason
Obviously the headliner of the Blazers offseason was the abrupt Brandon Roy retirement due to degenerative knees. Roy’s fall from rising NBA star to retirement is simply mind blowing and sad on many levels. After last season the knees figured to be a major issue going forward for Roy but no one predicted that they would force his retirement. Somewhat diminished by the Roy retirement news was the news that Greg Oden may miss the entire season with a relapse from last years knee injury. More than likely this will end Oden’s time in Portland. In one day the Blazers lost two of the pillars that the team was supposed to contend around, simply amazing. Quick tangent I have a real hard time believing that anyone would have taken Kevin Durant over Oden. Of course it’s really easy to look back now and say you would have drafted Durant over Oden but I can almost guarantee that 99.9% of people would have drafted Oden. After standing a couple feet away from Oden at Friday’s Fan Fest there is no way that I would pass up a chance to draft him. It goes without saying that Oden has been a bust for the Blazers but still I can’t reasonably fault Blazers management for picking him over Durant. That being said is there something wrong with Portland or the Blazers training staff? The amount of serious knee injuries is getting a little ridiculous.
In the wake of knee-pocalypse the Blazers struck deals with free agent forwards Kurt Thomas and Craig Smith as well as guard Jamal Crawford. Crawford is the big name of this bunch and will be a welcome addition for head coach Nate McMillan. Wesley Mathews will probably still be the starter for the Blazers at the shooting guard position but look for Crawford to get the crunch time minutes. Known for his devastating crossover Crawford knows how to put the ball in the hoop and can create his own shot against anyone. The ability for a wing player to create his own shot is something that the Blazers had to replace after Roy’s retirement. Crawford will fill this role and I expect him to hit some big shots for the Blazers throughout the season. The signings of Thomas and Smith were much lower profile than Crawford’s signing but still have to be chalked up as quality moves for the Blazers. Seeing as the Blazers didn’t even have a backup power forward on their roster these were needed additions. They also will provide depth at the center position as Marcus Camby is guaranteed to miss somewhere between 10-15 games every season.
Roster as is
Even before the Roy retirement and Oden injury the Blazers had gone through dramatic changes from last years team. Here is a brief glance at the current roster position by position and some notes on each position.
Point Guard: Raymond Felton, Nolan Smith, Armon Johnson
Newly acquired Felton will be the starter for the Blazers. Smith and Johnson are still waging battle for the backup point guard role; my guess is Smith will prevail. The addition of Felton means that the Blazers should run more as Felton excels in the open court but this is something that McMillan seems averse to. Even if the Blazers stay with their slow pace Felton is an upgrade for the Blazers at the point guard spot over Andre Miller.
Shooting Guard: Wesley Mathews, Jamal Crawford, Elliot Williams
Mathews will most likely be the starter only in name as I expect Crawford to play the majority of minutes at two guard. Small note I expect the Blazers to play small lineups quite a bit so expect Mathews to still play plenty of minutes. Either way the Mathews/Crawford split puts the Blazers above league average at the shooting guard position. Williams is still a question mark for the Blazers as he sat out all of last year with a knee injury. The Blazers drafted Williams for his athleticism so it is a little troubling that he is recovering from a serious knee injury but the early indications are that he has made a full recovery.
Small Forward: Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum, Luke Babbitt
Am I the only one that thinks Wallace’s knick name of Crash isn’t exactly a positive? I understand it’s in reference to his all out play on the court but it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in any basketball related skills. In related news Wallace may have the ugliest offensive game on the Blazers when he’s not dunking. Batum is an interesting prospect as he flashes star ability but then disappears for multiple games. This will be a telling year for Batum and his development. There is really nothing to say about Babbitt, I will be shocked if he’s still in the NBA after his rookie contract runs out.
Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge, Kurt Thomas, Craig Smith
The offense and this team run through LaMarcus Aldridge, that’s why all of Portland went into suicide alert when his heart ailment acted up last week. Thomas and Smith will be capable backups. I’m just warning you guys now, Smith doesn’t look he belongs in the NBA but the Blazers signed him for a reason.
Center: Marcus Camby, Chris Johnson, No Knees
For those that somehow missed the reference No Knees is Greg Oden. This position as a whole will provide the Blazers with no offense, really. Johnson is technically still competing with Earl Barron for the last spot on the roster but lets be honest you would take me over Earl Barron. While the center position will give the Blazers no offense the Camby/Johnson combo will provide the Blazers with decent defense and solid rebounding.
Starting Five Predictions
1. The Blazers once again won’t get out of the first round; it’s like clockwork.
2. LaMarcus Aldridge will progress and make the All-Star team.
2.5 Luke Babbit will still be awful.
3. The Blazers will be active at the trade deadline. They could look to begin rebuilding similar to their discussions last week of trading Gerald Wallace for draft picks.
3.5. All Portland fans will miss Patty Mills’ towel waving.
4. Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams will be pleasant surprises.
4.5 Marcus Camby’s jump shot will still give kids nightmares.
5. Someone on the Blazers will get a serious knee injury. I’m trying for the reverse jinx here.
Prediction: 37-29, 6th seed, 4-2 series loss to Memphis Grizzlies
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Friday, November 18, 2011
Oregon/USC
It's that time of they year once again. The final few weeks of college football's regular season when the top teams are battling for those coveted top 2 BCS rankings. And just when we thought it was getting interesting, USC is headed to Eugene for the game of the week. Oregon is coming off its most impressive performance of the season against Stanford, only to be tested once again against an 8-2 Trojans squad. The Ducks' dominating win over Stanford is quickly overshadowed by what might be Oregon's most important game of the season. Oregon can solidify itself as the top one loss team in the country with a convincing win this week, and is looking to clinch the Pac 12 North and home field advantage for the inaugural Pac 12 championship game. Meanwhile, although USC is unable to officially be ranked in the BCS standings or play in any bowl or championship games due to sanctions, don't think for a second that Lane Kiffin's team won't be ready and eager to play spoiler to Oregon's national title and Rose Bowl aspirations. The two teams have formed a bitter rivalry over the years, especially since Oregon stole USC's crown as kings of the Pac 10.
Both teams are very good on both sides of the ball. The Ducks and Trojans rank first (46.7) and fourth (34.1) in the Pac 12 points per game, respectively, and third (21.7) and fourth (22.4) in points allowed per game. Both starting quarterbacks have improved, and each team features a major offensive threat (Oregon's LaMichael James and USC's Robert Woods). Although Woods is listed as questionable for the game, I expect to see him out there and wanting the ball every time Matt Barkley drops back to throw. Oregon's corners are young and their inexperience has showed at times this season. With the assumption that Cliff Harris will once again be unavailable due to suspension, sophomore Avery Patterson and redshirt freshman Terrance Mitchell will have to play like they did last week against Stanford, as Barkley and the Trojans will be looking to air it out against Oregon's secondary.
Oregon's offensive game plan is simple: give the ball to LaMichael James. He's the best player on the team, and one of the best in the nation. Granted, USC will be aggressively trying to stop the run, but eventually Oregon's speed will wear them down and James will have a huge game. Their quarterback isn't too shabby either. Darron Thomas has quietly racked up 1,704 passing yards this season, along with 22 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. He has been even better at home, tossing 15 TDs with a Qb rating of 209.9. The Ducks have no reason to panic if for some reason James has any trouble on the ground.
Prediction: Reports call for snow Saturday night in Eugene, something neither team is accustom to. Oregon however is used to the cold, so that could play to their advantage, although I don't expect the weather to hurt USC's performance. Each team will punt on its first possession, letting themselves and the fans warm up a bit. Oregon's second drive takes an eternity of five minutes, capped off by a LaMichael James 9 yard TD scamper. USC is quick to answer with a long pass from Barkley to Woods, and the game is on. The first half is a lot of back and forth football, resulting in a 22-17 Oregon lead. Robert Woods tweaks his bum ankle but returns for the second half. The scoring picks up immediately after the intermission, and USC takes their first lead on a Marc Tyler run, 24-22 University of Sexual Ballers. Oregon quickly responds with a 40 yard pass down the middle from Thomas to tight end David Paulson, putting the Ducks back on top 29-24. USC begins to struggle on offense late in the game and the Ducks begin to run down the clock. Each team salvages a few more points, and the fourth ranked Ducks of Oregon prevail, 39-27.
Players of the game: Offensively for Oregon, LaMichael James will do what he does best and rack up 156 yards and three rushing touchdowns. At this point it is to be expected, but that doesn't make it any less incredible. Matt Barkley plays well but is disappointed once again, completing 24-40 passes for 235 yards with 2 TDs and 1 pick.
On defense, veteran safety John Boyett records 7 dive tackles, helping to lock down USC's passing game in the secondary, yet remains the most underrated player on the Oregon roster. For USC, the snow will be the only thing slowing Oregon's offense down and holding them to 39 points.
This will mark the third straight victory for Oregon over USC, guaranteeing a Pac 12 championship game at Autzen Stadium, and a better outside chance at a second straight national title game birth.
Here's more insight from guest columnist Max Waterman
Primer
For the second week in a row the marquee college football matchup is in the Pac-12. After last weeks Oregon vs. Stanford tilt #4 Oregon will once again be in the spotlight when they face #18 USC. At 8-2 overall and 6-2 in conference play USC is leading the Pac-12 South but will not be eligible for the Pac-12 title game or a bowl game due to sanctions. The Trojans will be facing an Oregon team, 9-1 overall (7-0 conference), that has catapulted itself back into BCS title game talks by winning out since its season opening loss to LSU, culminating with a thrashing of previous #4 Stanford last Saturday. Oregon will be playing to clinch the Pac-12 North.
Opposing Preview: USC
The sanctions that prevent USC from playing in the postseason and being ranked in the BCS and Coaches poll have pushed USC from its previous perch of Pac-10 king but lately USC has begun to resemble the teams that used to dominate the Pac-10. Oregon coach Chip Kelly even went as far as claiming that USC is the most talented team in the conference. While there not quite back at the top yet USC’s dismantling of Notre Dame and Washington have served notice that the Trojans are still a force to be reckoned with.
Led by QB Matt Barkley, who holding to tradition bashed the Ducks during game week, the Trojans have serious firepower as evidenced by 3 straight games of 40+ points. Barkley has two elite WR’s at his disposal in sophomore Robert Woods and true freshman Marquise Lee. Woods; 92 receptions, 1126 yards, and 11 touchdowns, is arguably the top WR in the nation but has been suffering from ankle and shoulder injuries which has put his status in doubt for the Oregon game. Diminutive junior RB Curtis Mcneal who is averaging 7 yards a carry has helped balance out the Trojan attack by rushing for over 100 yards in 3 of his past 4 games.
On defense the Trojans are young but still very talented. USC only gives up 24.8 points per game and excels at stopping the run. The Trojans only give up an average of 100.4 yards per game and will undoubtedly be focused on stopping LaMichael James who has gashed them in the teams two previous meetings. Oregon will look to exploit USC’s inexperienced linebackers, all three starters are freshman, with its usual misdirection and play action. The secondary has improved from last years but still isn’t anything special to write home about.
Devils Advocate: Why USC will win
1. The WR’s- While Oregon does have a good defense that has come on as of late they still have a tendency to get torched in the secondary. The best wide outs in the Pac-12 have put up some great numbers against Oregon: Arizona’s Juron Criner 9 (receptions) 96 (yards), Cal’s Keenan Allen 9-170-1 (touchdown), and Arizona State’s Gerrel Robinson 6-120-1. Not to take away anything from the players listed above but Robert Woods is simply in different class ability wise. Even with talk of Woods being doubtful for this game I expect him to play. Oregon’s secondary can’t let Woods and freshman burner Marquise Lee beat them.
2. Run Stopping- As mentioned above USC is having a standout year in regards to stopping the run. The last two times Oregon has lost it has been due to an inability run the ball consistently. USC’s defense certainly isn’t LSU’s and doesn’t have any players of Nick Fairley’s caliber but running against the Trojans will still be challenging for the Ducks. Look for USC to sell out against the run and make Darron Thomas beat them through the air.
3. Letdown game for Oregon- According to Chip Kelly letdown games for Oregon are impossible but lets be honest Oregon played their biggest game of the Pac-12 last week in Palo Alto. Even if there is a minor drop off in intensity from Oregon the Trojans are good enough to take advantage and make the Ducks pay. The dynamics of this game remind me of 2009 when Oregon beat USC at home in 2009 in the Pac-10’s game of the year only to lose at Stanford the next weekend. Obviously it’s a little different since Oregon is at home this weekend but there is still potential for Oregon to come out a little flat, which could open the door for USC.
Why Oregon Will Win
1. It’s at Autzen- I hate saying stuff like this because I always feel like I’m going to jinx it but Oregon has basically been invincible at home in Chip Kelly’s tenure as head coach. The Civil War in 2009 was the last time a visiting team contended with Oregon for a full four quarters. Autzen is an electric environment that the Ducks feed off. I don’t expect this weekend to be any different even if the forecast calls for some inclement weather.
2. Did you watch the game last weekend? – Oregon looked dominant last weekend against Stanford in all phases of the game. Even though they gave up 30 points the defense still made Andrew Luck have his worst game of the year. Offensively, led by LaMichael James, the Ducks looked as explosive as ever. The past few years Oregon has been blessed with a stable of great punt and kick returners and this year is no different but how about some love for the punter? Jackson Rice had another banner game last weekend and has quietly turned into one of the nations elite punters. Rice earns double points for commanding Oregon’s swinging gate two point conversion formation which has Oregon tied for the national lead in two-point conversions.
3. Depth- While USC may be as talented as Oregon they still lack the depth to keep up with Oregon due to scholarship restrictions. Oregon’s no huddle attack consistently wears teams down in the second half of games and USC’s lack of depth plays right into this. For those that don’t remember last years game USC and Oregon looked to be in a dogfight before USC tired leading to an easy Oregon victory.
Prediction
This game makes me a little nervous but in the end I think Oregon will get the victory due to their patented strong second half. Matt Barkley and crew will put up some points but in the end I don’t think it will be enough to match the Ducks.
Oregon 41 USC 27
Stars of the Game
Offense: LaMichael James- I know I’m really going out on a limb here but if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. James has had his way with the Trojans in his two previous matchups and I don’t think this one will be any different. I’ll also venture that James will take a punt back for a touchdown as USC has been suspect in their special teams coverage’s at times this season.
Defense: John Boyett- Boyett is a ball hawk which is why its confusing to only see a zero interceptions next to his name. This isn’t to say Boyett isn’t doing his job but more he's due to snag one at some point. Even if he doesn’t snatch an interception look for Boyett to deflect some passes and rack up 10+ tackles.
Both teams are very good on both sides of the ball. The Ducks and Trojans rank first (46.7) and fourth (34.1) in the Pac 12 points per game, respectively, and third (21.7) and fourth (22.4) in points allowed per game. Both starting quarterbacks have improved, and each team features a major offensive threat (Oregon's LaMichael James and USC's Robert Woods). Although Woods is listed as questionable for the game, I expect to see him out there and wanting the ball every time Matt Barkley drops back to throw. Oregon's corners are young and their inexperience has showed at times this season. With the assumption that Cliff Harris will once again be unavailable due to suspension, sophomore Avery Patterson and redshirt freshman Terrance Mitchell will have to play like they did last week against Stanford, as Barkley and the Trojans will be looking to air it out against Oregon's secondary.
Oregon's offensive game plan is simple: give the ball to LaMichael James. He's the best player on the team, and one of the best in the nation. Granted, USC will be aggressively trying to stop the run, but eventually Oregon's speed will wear them down and James will have a huge game. Their quarterback isn't too shabby either. Darron Thomas has quietly racked up 1,704 passing yards this season, along with 22 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. He has been even better at home, tossing 15 TDs with a Qb rating of 209.9. The Ducks have no reason to panic if for some reason James has any trouble on the ground.
Prediction: Reports call for snow Saturday night in Eugene, something neither team is accustom to. Oregon however is used to the cold, so that could play to their advantage, although I don't expect the weather to hurt USC's performance. Each team will punt on its first possession, letting themselves and the fans warm up a bit. Oregon's second drive takes an eternity of five minutes, capped off by a LaMichael James 9 yard TD scamper. USC is quick to answer with a long pass from Barkley to Woods, and the game is on. The first half is a lot of back and forth football, resulting in a 22-17 Oregon lead. Robert Woods tweaks his bum ankle but returns for the second half. The scoring picks up immediately after the intermission, and USC takes their first lead on a Marc Tyler run, 24-22 University of Sexual Ballers. Oregon quickly responds with a 40 yard pass down the middle from Thomas to tight end David Paulson, putting the Ducks back on top 29-24. USC begins to struggle on offense late in the game and the Ducks begin to run down the clock. Each team salvages a few more points, and the fourth ranked Ducks of Oregon prevail, 39-27.
Players of the game: Offensively for Oregon, LaMichael James will do what he does best and rack up 156 yards and three rushing touchdowns. At this point it is to be expected, but that doesn't make it any less incredible. Matt Barkley plays well but is disappointed once again, completing 24-40 passes for 235 yards with 2 TDs and 1 pick.
On defense, veteran safety John Boyett records 7 dive tackles, helping to lock down USC's passing game in the secondary, yet remains the most underrated player on the Oregon roster. For USC, the snow will be the only thing slowing Oregon's offense down and holding them to 39 points.
This will mark the third straight victory for Oregon over USC, guaranteeing a Pac 12 championship game at Autzen Stadium, and a better outside chance at a second straight national title game birth.
Here's more insight from guest columnist Max Waterman
Primer
For the second week in a row the marquee college football matchup is in the Pac-12. After last weeks Oregon vs. Stanford tilt #4 Oregon will once again be in the spotlight when they face #18 USC. At 8-2 overall and 6-2 in conference play USC is leading the Pac-12 South but will not be eligible for the Pac-12 title game or a bowl game due to sanctions. The Trojans will be facing an Oregon team, 9-1 overall (7-0 conference), that has catapulted itself back into BCS title game talks by winning out since its season opening loss to LSU, culminating with a thrashing of previous #4 Stanford last Saturday. Oregon will be playing to clinch the Pac-12 North.
Opposing Preview: USC
The sanctions that prevent USC from playing in the postseason and being ranked in the BCS and Coaches poll have pushed USC from its previous perch of Pac-10 king but lately USC has begun to resemble the teams that used to dominate the Pac-10. Oregon coach Chip Kelly even went as far as claiming that USC is the most talented team in the conference. While there not quite back at the top yet USC’s dismantling of Notre Dame and Washington have served notice that the Trojans are still a force to be reckoned with.
Led by QB Matt Barkley, who holding to tradition bashed the Ducks during game week, the Trojans have serious firepower as evidenced by 3 straight games of 40+ points. Barkley has two elite WR’s at his disposal in sophomore Robert Woods and true freshman Marquise Lee. Woods; 92 receptions, 1126 yards, and 11 touchdowns, is arguably the top WR in the nation but has been suffering from ankle and shoulder injuries which has put his status in doubt for the Oregon game. Diminutive junior RB Curtis Mcneal who is averaging 7 yards a carry has helped balance out the Trojan attack by rushing for over 100 yards in 3 of his past 4 games.
On defense the Trojans are young but still very talented. USC only gives up 24.8 points per game and excels at stopping the run. The Trojans only give up an average of 100.4 yards per game and will undoubtedly be focused on stopping LaMichael James who has gashed them in the teams two previous meetings. Oregon will look to exploit USC’s inexperienced linebackers, all three starters are freshman, with its usual misdirection and play action. The secondary has improved from last years but still isn’t anything special to write home about.
Devils Advocate: Why USC will win
1. The WR’s- While Oregon does have a good defense that has come on as of late they still have a tendency to get torched in the secondary. The best wide outs in the Pac-12 have put up some great numbers against Oregon: Arizona’s Juron Criner 9 (receptions) 96 (yards), Cal’s Keenan Allen 9-170-1 (touchdown), and Arizona State’s Gerrel Robinson 6-120-1. Not to take away anything from the players listed above but Robert Woods is simply in different class ability wise. Even with talk of Woods being doubtful for this game I expect him to play. Oregon’s secondary can’t let Woods and freshman burner Marquise Lee beat them.
2. Run Stopping- As mentioned above USC is having a standout year in regards to stopping the run. The last two times Oregon has lost it has been due to an inability run the ball consistently. USC’s defense certainly isn’t LSU’s and doesn’t have any players of Nick Fairley’s caliber but running against the Trojans will still be challenging for the Ducks. Look for USC to sell out against the run and make Darron Thomas beat them through the air.
3. Letdown game for Oregon- According to Chip Kelly letdown games for Oregon are impossible but lets be honest Oregon played their biggest game of the Pac-12 last week in Palo Alto. Even if there is a minor drop off in intensity from Oregon the Trojans are good enough to take advantage and make the Ducks pay. The dynamics of this game remind me of 2009 when Oregon beat USC at home in 2009 in the Pac-10’s game of the year only to lose at Stanford the next weekend. Obviously it’s a little different since Oregon is at home this weekend but there is still potential for Oregon to come out a little flat, which could open the door for USC.
Why Oregon Will Win
1. It’s at Autzen- I hate saying stuff like this because I always feel like I’m going to jinx it but Oregon has basically been invincible at home in Chip Kelly’s tenure as head coach. The Civil War in 2009 was the last time a visiting team contended with Oregon for a full four quarters. Autzen is an electric environment that the Ducks feed off. I don’t expect this weekend to be any different even if the forecast calls for some inclement weather.
2. Did you watch the game last weekend? – Oregon looked dominant last weekend against Stanford in all phases of the game. Even though they gave up 30 points the defense still made Andrew Luck have his worst game of the year. Offensively, led by LaMichael James, the Ducks looked as explosive as ever. The past few years Oregon has been blessed with a stable of great punt and kick returners and this year is no different but how about some love for the punter? Jackson Rice had another banner game last weekend and has quietly turned into one of the nations elite punters. Rice earns double points for commanding Oregon’s swinging gate two point conversion formation which has Oregon tied for the national lead in two-point conversions.
3. Depth- While USC may be as talented as Oregon they still lack the depth to keep up with Oregon due to scholarship restrictions. Oregon’s no huddle attack consistently wears teams down in the second half of games and USC’s lack of depth plays right into this. For those that don’t remember last years game USC and Oregon looked to be in a dogfight before USC tired leading to an easy Oregon victory.
Prediction
This game makes me a little nervous but in the end I think Oregon will get the victory due to their patented strong second half. Matt Barkley and crew will put up some points but in the end I don’t think it will be enough to match the Ducks.
Oregon 41 USC 27
Stars of the Game
Offense: LaMichael James- I know I’m really going out on a limb here but if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. James has had his way with the Trojans in his two previous matchups and I don’t think this one will be any different. I’ll also venture that James will take a punt back for a touchdown as USC has been suspect in their special teams coverage’s at times this season.
Defense: John Boyett- Boyett is a ball hawk which is why its confusing to only see a zero interceptions next to his name. This isn’t to say Boyett isn’t doing his job but more he's due to snag one at some point. Even if he doesn’t snatch an interception look for Boyett to deflect some passes and rack up 10+ tackles.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
BCS vs Playoffs
Every single winter, thousands of college football fans debate the BCS system and why it favors automatic qualifying conference schools and analysts will concur and disagree. It is my belief that fans' arguments are based on the school they affiliate themselves with. Boise State fans and fans of teams outside the top 2 but still in the top 25 will argue against the BCS, and everyone else will say it's ok. As an Oregon fan, I do have some biased views this year in particular, given their play over the season and especially against Stanford. Oregon can beat any team in the country. The Ducks put up 27 on top ranked LSU in Texas, which was very much a road game. That is the most points LSU's excellent defense has allowed all season. It allows 10.7 points per game. In fact, in eight of Oregon's first eleven games, the Ducks have scored more points against their opponent than any other team has against that same opponent. And the most astonishing statistic, Oregon's point total at the end of each game has been higher than their opponent's average points allowed. Technically Washington is giving up 34.1 points per game and Oregon managed a measly 34, but we'll let it slide this time. Oregon also ranks third in the nation in points and points per game (behind Case Keenum, and Brandon Weeden/Justin Blackmon), fifth in total rushing and rushing yards per game, and first in yards per rush. Darron Thomas isn't wowing anybody statistically with passing stats, but everyone knows how good he is if they watched the national championship game against Auburn.
The Ducks haven't had a lot of success in big games after a long break under Chip Kelly, but have been pretty darn good otherwise. Their offense has much improved and their defense hasn't looked better. The front seven was swarming Andrew Luck throughout the game and their secondary looked much better than it has all season. If Oregon had another shot at LSU, I think The Ducks would come out on top. Which is why I believe there should be a playoff system. Admittedly, I was fine with the BCS last season when Oregon was number 2 in December (well deserved). With so many great teams near the top of the standings, I think the BCS leaves too many questions unanswered. Perhaps Alabama and LSU should rematch their beauty of a defensive game, but if a one loss Alabama jumps an undefeated Oklahoma State in the BCS, or if OK state, Bama, and Oregon all finish with one loss, it will cause all kinds of problems. Here is my solution. The BCS rankings take place as usual, unveiling the top 25 teams each week. When the final standings are released, so is a playoff bracket. The top ten teams make the playoffs, the top 2 with first round byes. There is a 1 week bye after bowl championship games to get teams rested, but not too rested and rusty. Then each round is completed in consecutive weekends. Yes it will add four weeks to the schedule, but the BCS Championship game isn't until the second week of January anyway. Then there's the argument about the loss of BCS bowls which coincides with a loss of revenue from ticket sales and ads. Why not just play each round of the playoffs at a different BCS bowl location? With the championship location changing each year just as it does now. That way fans will still pay loads of money to go the games, and I think it would even draw more viewers. That launches the fan argument of: "I don't know which game will be my team's last, how do I know which game to buy a ticket for?" This is a minor gap in my plan, but a solution could easily be attained. My take on it is: if you want to be sure to see your team play, buy a ticket for the first round and go from there. Houston fans will still be bitter about the playoffs only including the top 10 teams instead of top 12, but that's just being greedy. If the regular season ended today, Alabama would play Boise State, Oregon would rematch Stanford for bragging rights of the century, Oklahoma would play Virginia Tech, and Arkansas would play Clemson. All of these games would be extremely intriguing and entertaining. Boise State would finally get that marquee SEC matchup that they've always wanted, Oregon and Stanford would become college football's newest rivalry, a beat up Oklahoma team would have a chance to prove their preseason number 1 ranking, while they could also be upset by a surging Hokie squad. And the Arkansas/ Clemson game is simply talented, hard nosed SEC football, looking to prove itself through several rounds of teams from different conferences, against a surprising Clemson team trying to shock the world and get to the biggest stage. Sounds pretty entertaining to me. Although it could end up that all the higher seeds win and move on and LSU eventually wins the title, I believe there would be some upsets along the way, and college football would be forever changed.
The Ducks haven't had a lot of success in big games after a long break under Chip Kelly, but have been pretty darn good otherwise. Their offense has much improved and their defense hasn't looked better. The front seven was swarming Andrew Luck throughout the game and their secondary looked much better than it has all season. If Oregon had another shot at LSU, I think The Ducks would come out on top. Which is why I believe there should be a playoff system. Admittedly, I was fine with the BCS last season when Oregon was number 2 in December (well deserved). With so many great teams near the top of the standings, I think the BCS leaves too many questions unanswered. Perhaps Alabama and LSU should rematch their beauty of a defensive game, but if a one loss Alabama jumps an undefeated Oklahoma State in the BCS, or if OK state, Bama, and Oregon all finish with one loss, it will cause all kinds of problems. Here is my solution. The BCS rankings take place as usual, unveiling the top 25 teams each week. When the final standings are released, so is a playoff bracket. The top ten teams make the playoffs, the top 2 with first round byes. There is a 1 week bye after bowl championship games to get teams rested, but not too rested and rusty. Then each round is completed in consecutive weekends. Yes it will add four weeks to the schedule, but the BCS Championship game isn't until the second week of January anyway. Then there's the argument about the loss of BCS bowls which coincides with a loss of revenue from ticket sales and ads. Why not just play each round of the playoffs at a different BCS bowl location? With the championship location changing each year just as it does now. That way fans will still pay loads of money to go the games, and I think it would even draw more viewers. That launches the fan argument of: "I don't know which game will be my team's last, how do I know which game to buy a ticket for?" This is a minor gap in my plan, but a solution could easily be attained. My take on it is: if you want to be sure to see your team play, buy a ticket for the first round and go from there. Houston fans will still be bitter about the playoffs only including the top 10 teams instead of top 12, but that's just being greedy. If the regular season ended today, Alabama would play Boise State, Oregon would rematch Stanford for bragging rights of the century, Oklahoma would play Virginia Tech, and Arkansas would play Clemson. All of these games would be extremely intriguing and entertaining. Boise State would finally get that marquee SEC matchup that they've always wanted, Oregon and Stanford would become college football's newest rivalry, a beat up Oklahoma team would have a chance to prove their preseason number 1 ranking, while they could also be upset by a surging Hokie squad. And the Arkansas/ Clemson game is simply talented, hard nosed SEC football, looking to prove itself through several rounds of teams from different conferences, against a surprising Clemson team trying to shock the world and get to the biggest stage. Sounds pretty entertaining to me. Although it could end up that all the higher seeds win and move on and LSU eventually wins the title, I believe there would be some upsets along the way, and college football would be forever changed.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
More JoePa
I know that ESPN has been covering Penn State and only Penn State for the last 19 hours or so, but I feel like I need to address it as well. This is the most unfortunate series of developments involving such a prominent sports figure in recent memory. Joe Paterno has been at the helm of Nittany Lions' football for literally twice as long as I have been alive, and I don't think anyone wanted to see him go out this way. Although many people, including myself, wanted to see a gleaming 84 year old man being carefully hoisted above his players after a season ending bowl victory to cap off the winningest career in college football history, this is the way it had to end. The Penn State board of trustees had no choice but to let Paterno go immediately, even though he said he would retire at season's end. From a publicity standpoint, no university wants a media firestorm on campus over child sexual abuse charges, obviously. Although the firing of Paterno drew substantially more attention to the institution, not to mention a riot in the streets, they ultimately made the decision that nobody wanted to make, but had to. The university will potentially lose millions of dollars from boosters, sponsors, and the like, and also from aspiring future students. If they had let the issue drag on longer, the losses would have compounded exponentially until a parking lot car wash was the primary means of revenue. Many details of the case are not yet known, but based on what is known, Paterno had to go. What may be even more damaging for the school though is the loss of their president, Graham Spanier. Yes JoePa is more beloved and cherished by the students, but a university president is more important than a football coach. This is not to say that Paterno was unimportant to the school, as he clearly was, it is just to reflect on how unfortunate and deadly it was to not only Penn State, but to college football as a whole. Wednesday, the sports world witnessed something it hasn't in a very long time. The winningest coach in college football history, the face of an entire university, and definitely the coolest and toughest 84 year old man in America is not the head coach of the Penn State Nittany Lions football team. To live to see 84 alone is an accomplishment. To patrol the sidelines of a perennially top 25 ranked college football team at that age is unheard of. He battled through several injuries and never missed a play. It wouldn't have surprised me if JoePa ran himself out there as middle linebacker from time to time. This is a huge black eye on Penn State, and on Paterno's career. It is my hope that fans remember the gleaming old man being carried off the field by his victorious team. That people will remember the great things he did for Penn State and for college football. Let us not allow this to damage Paterno's accomplishments. Yes, he should have done more to address the horrible events that were taking place, and he is now being reprimanded. My question is, why is why hasn't assistant coach Mike McQueary been fired as well? He witnessed Jerry Sandusky sexually abusing young boys, and did nothing. There are many more minor details that will resolve the issue further, but in my eyes the lack of a move here is incorrect.
A legend died last night.
A legend died last night.
Welcome
Welcome sports fans to the newest blog for the latest in the sports world. My name is Madison Guernsey and I am a junior at the University of Oregon, and I have always had a passion for sports and am aspiring to be a sports journalist. My focus will be on northwest sports teams, (Oregon Ducks, Portland Trail Blazers, Seattle Mariners, Seattle Seahawks) but I will write on all sports topics and genres. Please feel free to comment and give feedback. Also, if you have something you want to contribute, please contact me and let me know and we can work something out. Hope you all enjoy.
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