2011-12 Blazers Preview
Much like the 2011-12 NBA season, my Blazers preview is a little late. How appropriate. Although Portland is two games in to the lockout shortened season, plenty of time remains for predictions and critiques, so let's begin.
Brandon Roy's sudden retirement was a terrible shock to NBA fans and especially Blazer nation. The prodigal son was gone just like that, before he hit his prime, with knees or without. Blazer fans lost a part of their family that day when B-Roy decided to hang 'em up, as did the team lose a leader and star player. My hope is that eventually Roy's knees will heal enough for him to attempt a comeback, but that's very wishful thinking. Even if Roy does comeback in a year or two, it may end up being more of a nostalgia trip for Rip City, as nobody can expect Brandon to play at the level he did before suffering numerous knee injuries. He will always be remembered for his ability to take over games and give the league's best defenders quite a difficult task. Not to mention his 32 foot buzzer beater against Houston in '08 and what will be remembered as his best performance of his career in Game 5 against Dallas in the 2011 first round, when he scored 18 points in the fourth quarter to keep the Blazers alive for one more game. Whatever Brandon Roy decides to do, whether it be to attempt a comeback, return to the sidelines as a coach, or simply watch from afar with his family, all Blazer fans wish him the best and will always miss and remember him. (This is not an obituary, although it might as well be.)
Another blow to the Blazers' offseason was a disappointing yet not surprising negative result in the Greg Oden injury saga. Oden is once again doubtful for the season with an ailing knee injury that has combined with a foot injury to hold him out of three quarters of games in his career. This forced the Blazers to sign the oldest player in the league in 39 year old journeyman center Kurt Thomas. While Thomas is highly experienced and will bring much veteran leadership, the last thing the Blazers need is another old post. Marcus Camby, 37, is in the twilight of his career, and Thomas isn't any closer to his glory years. Hopefully the duo can pass off some of their wisdom to young wildcard Chris Johnson, who has a ton of athleticism and potential. The three amigos actually won't make a bad frontcourt trio, as Camby and Thomas can carry a majority of the minutes while Johnson can step in when they need to hit the oxygen tanks. Alright enough ragging on the vets. I think they're both quality players and will contribute to Portland's success.
Back to Oden. He has struck fear in my heart of turning into another Sam Bowie. Bowie was selected second overall by Portland in 1984, one pick ahead of Michael Jordan. Bowie was the right pick at the time but ended up being oft injured and a bust, while MJ went on to be the best player in the history of basketball. Basketball gods really do hate the Blazers. Oden was undoubtedly deserving of being selected number one in 2007. A seven foot center who could grab fifteen rebounds a game and be as dominant as Dwight Howard. Any team would be stupid to pick Kevin Durant over him. Meanwhile, Oden has played in just 82 games over 4 seasons while Durant won the scoring title last season, and is in preseason MVP considerations with the likes of LeBron and Chris Paul. Even a more painful reality is that the Thunder (formerly the Supersonics and Portland's arch rival) are one of the top teams in the Western Conference whom many have picked to win the conference and/or NBA title this season. Fifteen years down the road, will the Blazers be the subject of, “Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame the Blazers for Picking Oden Over Durant?” Oden seems like a really nice guy, and his ongoing injuries have to be killing him more than anyone else, both literally and figuratively. He wants to get out there and be the 18 and 15 per night guy he has the potential to be, but his enormous body simply won't let him. Rip City fans and NBA fans alike hope he can get healthy once and for all, and be a relevant name in the league. So Greg, on behalf of myself and all Blazer fans, break a leg?
A much needed bright spot for the Blazers this offseason was the signing of veteran shooting guard and former sixth man of the year Jamal Crawford. The deal is for just two seasons with a player option for the second year, and many believe Crawford will bail after one season and seek a long-term contract. I believe Crawford will fit in very nicely to Portland's newly adopted fast paced offense, and hopefully he learns to love the Pacific Northwest and the incredible environment the Rose Garden provides each and every night. It will take a few more games for Jamal to get comfortable in Portland and their offense, but once he does he will be an excellent contributor and will provide a ton of energy off the bench.
The Blazers' backcourt lost veteran point guard Andre Miller this offseason via trade with Denver in exchange for seventh year court general Raymond Felton. Felton brings some much needed youth to the starting lineup, and while Miller's career averages are slightly better, Felton is just hitting his prime and is a much better outside shooter. Once he gets the Blazers' offense down pat and develops the Andre to LaMarcus lob pass, Felton will prove to be very valuable and will only get better for Portland.
Key Players
Along with newcomers Crawford and Felton, Portland has a lot of underrated talent that has yet to be recognized by much of the league.
LaMarcus Aldridge
This will be the year for Aldridge to step out of Brandon Roy's shadow and take over as a superstar player for the Blazers. Although he had a breakout season last year and developed into such player, Roy is completely gone this season, so “LA” can step into the spotlight even more. Aldridge averaged a career high in points and rebounds last season (21.8 and 8.7, respectively) and at age 26, those numbers will only get better. He solidified himself as a premier power forward in the NBA, and is now Portland's superstar to replace B-Roy.
Gerald Wallace
“Crash” came over to the Blazers at the trade deadline last year and it has taken little time for him to impress Rip City. In 23 games last season and the first two of this year, Wallace has displayed a nonstop motor and extraordinary hustle in 35.1 minutes per game. Wallace is a guy who will get you 15 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, a block and a couple steals every game, without ever showing a single emotion. He and Felton played 5 seasons together and built a chemistry in Charlotte, so look for them to build on that this year and be a huge part or Portland's success.
Wesley Matthews
It's just Matthews' third year in the league, but he has already proven himself as an excellent scorer. He has yet to miss a game, and averaged a career high 15.9 pointer per game last season while shooting 40.7% from behind the 3 point line and 84.4% from the charity stripe. It's been a rough first two games for Wes this season, but he needs to and will keep shooting, and eventually his shots will fall.
Playoff Chances
The Blazers are easily one of the top eight teams in the Western Conference and should have no trouble making the playoffs. Their downfall in previous years has been injuries, and with Oden already out in addition to having the two oldest centers in the NBA, it is easy to expect more of the same. The lockout shortened season provides less time for players to get hurt, but if there are any injuries, potential losses will hurt the Blazers even more, as every game is so important this season. Basketball gods have hated the Trailblazers recently, but this year could finally be the one in which Portland breaks through the first round of the playoffs. The team still has a lot of youth other than Thomas and Camby, and everyone in the starting lineup except Camby is either in their prime or has yet to hit it. There are many bright spots for the Blazers this season and for years to come.
Max Waterman
Due to the NBA lockout there has been a frenetic offseason with free agency lasting a little over two weeks and team practices a little over one week. While the Portland Trail Blazers were minor players in free agency and the trading market they experienced a dramatic changing of their roster to their familiar nemesis; injuries. With a week remaining until the Blazers season tips off lets take a glance at the Blazers offseason moves, the roster as is, and ultimately a prediction for how they will fare in the 2011-2012 season.
Offseason
Obviously the headliner of the Blazers offseason was the abrupt Brandon Roy retirement due to degenerative knees. Roy’s fall from rising NBA star to retirement is simply mind blowing and sad on many levels. After last season the knees figured to be a major issue going forward for Roy but no one predicted that they would force his retirement. Somewhat diminished by the Roy retirement news was the news that Greg Oden may miss the entire season with a relapse from last years knee injury. More than likely this will end Oden’s time in Portland. In one day the Blazers lost two of the pillars that the team was supposed to contend around, simply amazing. Quick tangent I have a real hard time believing that anyone would have taken Kevin Durant over Oden. Of course it’s really easy to look back now and say you would have drafted Durant over Oden but I can almost guarantee that 99.9% of people would have drafted Oden. After standing a couple feet away from Oden at Friday’s Fan Fest there is no way that I would pass up a chance to draft him. It goes without saying that Oden has been a bust for the Blazers but still I can’t reasonably fault Blazers management for picking him over Durant. That being said is there something wrong with Portland or the Blazers training staff? The amount of serious knee injuries is getting a little ridiculous.
In the wake of knee-pocalypse the Blazers struck deals with free agent forwards Kurt Thomas and Craig Smith as well as guard Jamal Crawford. Crawford is the big name of this bunch and will be a welcome addition for head coach Nate McMillan. Wesley Mathews will probably still be the starter for the Blazers at the shooting guard position but look for Crawford to get the crunch time minutes. Known for his devastating crossover Crawford knows how to put the ball in the hoop and can create his own shot against anyone. The ability for a wing player to create his own shot is something that the Blazers had to replace after Roy’s retirement. Crawford will fill this role and I expect him to hit some big shots for the Blazers throughout the season. The signings of Thomas and Smith were much lower profile than Crawford’s signing but still have to be chalked up as quality moves for the Blazers. Seeing as the Blazers didn’t even have a backup power forward on their roster these were needed additions. They also will provide depth at the center position as Marcus Camby is guaranteed to miss somewhere between 10-15 games every season.
Roster as is
Even before the Roy retirement and Oden injury the Blazers had gone through dramatic changes from last years team. Here is a brief glance at the current roster position by position and some notes on each position.
Point Guard: Raymond Felton, Nolan Smith, Armon Johnson
Newly acquired Felton will be the starter for the Blazers. Smith and Johnson are still waging battle for the backup point guard role; my guess is Smith will prevail. The addition of Felton means that the Blazers should run more as Felton excels in the open court but this is something that McMillan seems averse to. Even if the Blazers stay with their slow pace Felton is an upgrade for the Blazers at the point guard spot over Andre Miller.
Shooting Guard: Wesley Mathews, Jamal Crawford, Elliot Williams
Mathews will most likely be the starter only in name as I expect Crawford to play the majority of minutes at two guard. Small note I expect the Blazers to play small lineups quite a bit so expect Mathews to still play plenty of minutes. Either way the Mathews/Crawford split puts the Blazers above league average at the shooting guard position. Williams is still a question mark for the Blazers as he sat out all of last year with a knee injury. The Blazers drafted Williams for his athleticism so it is a little troubling that he is recovering from a serious knee injury but the early indications are that he has made a full recovery.
Small Forward: Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum, Luke Babbitt
Am I the only one that thinks Wallace’s knick name of Crash isn’t exactly a positive? I understand it’s in reference to his all out play on the court but it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in any basketball related skills. In related news Wallace may have the ugliest offensive game on the Blazers when he’s not dunking. Batum is an interesting prospect as he flashes star ability but then disappears for multiple games. This will be a telling year for Batum and his development. There is really nothing to say about Babbitt, I will be shocked if he’s still in the NBA after his rookie contract runs out.
Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge, Kurt Thomas, Craig Smith
The offense and this team run through LaMarcus Aldridge, that’s why all of Portland went into suicide alert when his heart ailment acted up last week. Thomas and Smith will be capable backups. I’m just warning you guys now, Smith doesn’t look he belongs in the NBA but the Blazers signed him for a reason.
Center: Marcus Camby, Chris Johnson, No Knees
For those that somehow missed the reference No Knees is Greg Oden. This position as a whole will provide the Blazers with no offense, really. Johnson is technically still competing with Earl Barron for the last spot on the roster but lets be honest you would take me over Earl Barron. While the center position will give the Blazers no offense the Camby/Johnson combo will provide the Blazers with decent defense and solid rebounding.
Starting Five Predictions
1. The Blazers once again won’t get out of the first round; it’s like clockwork.
2. LaMarcus Aldridge will progress and make the All-Star team.
2.5 Luke Babbit will still be awful.
3. The Blazers will be active at the trade deadline. They could look to begin rebuilding similar to their discussions last week of trading Gerald Wallace for draft picks.
3.5. All Portland fans will miss Patty Mills’ towel waving.
4. Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams will be pleasant surprises.
4.5 Marcus Camby’s jump shot will still give kids nightmares.
5. Someone on the Blazers will get a serious knee injury. I’m trying for the reverse jinx here.
Prediction: 37-29, 6th seed, 4-2 series loss to Memphis Grizzlies
